Coordinated nasal mucosa-mediated immunity accelerates recovery from COVID-19 (preprint)

Viral infection due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induce a dynamic immune environment. Using nasal mucosal samples in 139 participants from the STOIC study (community-based randomised clinical trial for the use of budesonide in early onset SARS-CoV-2, NCT04416399), we applied predefined immune mediator nodes in relation to clinical outcomes and viral burden. Interferon- and chemokine-dominant nodes increased expression as compared to health, validating our modular approach. Next, we demonstrated that an increase in mucosal immunity-like node consisting of CCL13, CCL17, IL-33, among others was associated with a mean 3.7-day quicker recovery with no primary outcome events, irrespective of treatment arm. By day 14 the mucosal node divided into two daughter nodes linked to interferon molecules and was transcriptionally detectable in nasal cavity basal, hillock and ciliated cells (as per public single cell dataset EGAD00001007718). Our data suggest mucosal-associated mediators are key for early symptom resolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Dampening of the respiratory cytokine storm is promoted by inhaled budesonide in patients with early COVID-19 (preprint)

Vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 are effective in COVID-19. However, with limited vaccine access, vaccine hesitancy and variant breakthroughs, there is still a need for effective and safe early treatments. Two community-based clinical trials of the inhaled corticosteroid, budesonide, have recently been published showing and improvement in patients with COVID-19 treated early with budesonide1,2. To understand mechanistically how budesonide was beneficial, inflammatory mediators were assessed in the nasal mucosa of patients recruited to the Steroids in COVID (STOIC1) trial and a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 negative individuals. Here we show that in early COVID-19, elevation in viral response proteins and Th1 and Th2 inflammation occurs. Longitudinal sampling in the natural course of COVID-19 showed persistently high interferon levels and elevated concentrations of the eosinophil chemokine, CCL11. In patients who deteriorate, the initial nasal mucosal signal is characterised by a marked suppression of the early inflammatory response, with reduced concentrations of interferon and inflammatory cytokines, but elevated eosinophil chemokines. Systemic inflammation remained altered in COVID-19 patients, implying that even after symptom resolution, changes in immunological mediators do not resolve. Budesonide treatment decreased IL-33 and IFN-{gamma}, implying a reduction in epithelial damage and dampening of the interferon response. Budesonide treatment also increased CCL17 concentrations, suggesting an improved T-cell response; and significantly alters inflammatory pathways giving further insight into how this treatment can accelerate patient recovery.

Inhaled budesonide for COVID-19 in people at higher risk of adverse outcomes in the community: interim analyses from the PRINCIPLE trial (preprint)

BACKGROUND Inhaled budesonide has shown efficacy for treating COVID-19 in the community but has not yet been tested in effectiveness trials. METHODS We performed a multicenter, open-label, multi-arm, adaptive platform randomized controlled trial involving people aged [≥]65 years, or [≥]50 years with comorbidities, and unwell [≤]14 days with suspected COVID-19 in the community (PRINCIPLE). Participants were randomized to usual care, usual care plus inhaled budesonide (800g twice daily for 14 days), or usual care plus other interventions. The co-primary endpoints are time to first self-reported recovery, and hospitalization/death related to COVID-19, both measured over 28 days from randomisation and analysed using Bayesian models. RESULTS The trial opened on April 2, 2020. Randomization to inhaled budesonide began on November 27, 2020 and was stopped on March 31, 2021 based on an interim analysis using data from March 4, 2021. Here, we report updated interim analysis data from March 25, 2021, at which point the trial had randomized 4663 participants with suspected COVID-19. Of these, 2617 (56.1%) tested SARS-CoV-2 positive and contributed data to this interim budesonide primary analysis; 751 budesonide, 1028 usual care and 643 to other interventions. Time to first self-reported recovery was shorter in the budesonide group compared to usual care (hazard ratio 1.208 [95% BCI 1.076 - 1.356], probability of superiority 0.999, estimated benefit [95% BCI] of 3.011 [1.134 - 5.41] days). Among those in the interim budesonide primary analysis who had the opportunity to contribute data for 28 days follow up, there were 59/692 (8.5%) COVID-19 related hospitalizations/deaths in the budesonide group vs 100/968 (10.3%) in the usual care group (estimated percentage benefit, 2.1% [95% BCI -0.7% - 4.8%], probability of superiority 0.928). CONCLUSIONS In this updated interim analysis, inhaled budesonide reduced time to recovery by a median of 3 days in people with COVID-19 with risk factors for adverse outcomes. Once 28 day follow up is complete for all participants randomized to budesonide, final analyses of time to recovery and hospitalization/death will be published. (Funded by the National Institute of Health Research/ United Kingdom Research Innovation [MC_PC_19079]; PRINCIPLE ISRCTN number, ISRCTN86534580.)

Inhaled Budesonide in the Treatment of Early COVID-19 Illness: A Randomised Controlled Trial (preprint)

Background: Multiple early hospital cohorts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) showed that patients with chronic respiratory disease were significantly under-represented. We hypothesised that the widespread use of inhaled glucocorticoids was responsible for this finding and tested if inhaled glucorticoids would be an effective treatment for early COVID-19 illness. Methods: We conducted a randomised, open label trial of inhaled budesonide, compared to usual care, in adults within 7 days of the onset of mild Covid-19 symptoms. The primary end point was COVID-19-related urgent care visit, emergency department assessment or hospitalisation. The trial was stopped early after independent statistical review concluded that study outcome would not change with further participant enrolment. Results: 146 patients underwent randomisation. For the per protocol population (n=139), the primary outcome occurred in 10 participants and 1 participant in the usual care and budesonide arms respectively (difference in proportion 0.131, p=0.004). The number needed to treat with inhaled budesonide to reduce COVID-19 deterioration was 8. Clinical recovery was 1 day shorter in the budesonide arm compared to the usual care arm (median of 7 days versus 8 days respectively, logrank test p=0.007). Proportion of days with a fever and proportion of participants with at least 1 day of fever was lower in the budesonide arm. Fewer participants randomised to budesonide had persistent symptoms at day 14 and day 28 compared to participants receiving usual care. Conclusion: Early administration of inhaled budesonide reduced the likelihood of needing urgent medical care and reduced time to recovery following early COVID-19 infection.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04416399Funding: Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre and AstraZenecaDeclaration of Interests: Dr. Ramakrishnan reports grants and non-financial support from Oxford Respiratory NIHR BRC, during the conduct of the study; non-financial support from AstraZeneca, personal fees from Australian Government Research Training Program, outside the submitted work; . Dr. Nicolau has nothing to disclose. Mrs Langford has nothing to disclose. Mr. Mahdi has nothing to disclose. Mrs Helen Jeffers reports personal fees from AstraZeneca, outside the submitted work; . Miss Mwasuku has nothing to disclose. Mrs Krassowska has nothing to disclose. Dr Fox has nothing to disclose. Dr Binnian has nothing to disclose. Dr Glover has nothing to disclose. Dr Bright has nothing to disclose. Dr. Butler reports grants from National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Roche Molecular Diagnostics, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, and various public funding bodies for research related to diagnostics and infections. He has revcied personal fees from Pfizer INC, Roche Diagnostics, and Janssen Pharmaceuticals, outside the submitted work. Dr. Cane has nothing to disclose. Mr. Halner has nothing to disclose. Dr. Matthews has nothing to disclose. Dr. Donnelly reports grants from AstraZeneca, from Boehringer-Ingelheim, outside the submitted work; . Dr. Simpson has nothing to disclose. Dr Baker has nothing to disclose. Dr. Fadai has nothing to disclose. Dr. Peterson reports personal fees from AstraZeneca, outside the submitted work; . Mr. Bengtsson reports personal fees from AstraZeneca, outside the submitted work; Dr. Barnes reports grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca, grants and personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, personal fees from Teva, personal fees from Covis, during the conduct of the study; Dr. Russell reports grants from AstraZeneca, personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, personal fees from Chiesi UK, personal fees from Glaxo-SmithKline, during the conduct of the study; . Dr. Bafadhel reports grants from AstraZeneca, personal fees from AstraZeneca, Chiesi, GSK, other from Albus Health, ProAxsis, outside the submitted work; .Ethics Approval Statement: The trial was sponsored by the University of Oxford, and was approved by the Fulham London Research Ethics Committee (20/HRA/2531) and the National Health Research Authority.The ethical approval number is 20/HRA/2531.

Inhaled budesonide in the treatment of early COVID-19 illness: a randomised controlled trial (preprint)

BackgroundMultiple early hospital cohorts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) showed that patients with chronic respiratory disease were significantly under-represented. We hypothesised that the widespread use of inhaled glucocorticoids was responsible for this finding and tested if inhaled glucorticoids would be an effective treatment for early COVID-19 illness. MethodsWe conducted a randomised, open label trial of inhaled budesonide, compared to usual care, in adults within 7 days of the onset of mild Covid-19 symptoms. The primary end point was COVID-19-related urgent care visit, emergency department assessment or hospitalisation. The trial was stopped early after independent statistical review concluded that study outcome would not change with further participant enrolment. Results146 patients underwent randomisation. For the per protocol population (n=139), the primary outcome occurred in 10 participants and 1 participant in the usual care and budesonide arms respectively (difference in proportion 0.131, p=0.004). The number needed to treat with inhaled budesonide to reduce COVID-19 deterioration was 8. Clinical recovery was 1 day shorter in the budesonide arm compared to the usual care arm (median of 7 days versus 8 days respectively, logrank test p=0.007). Proportion of days with a fever and proportion of participants with at least 1 day of fever was lower in the budesonide arm. Fewer participants randomised to budesonide had persistent symptoms at day 14 and day 28 compared to participants receiving usual care. ConclusionEarly administration of inhaled budesonide reduced the likelihood of needing urgent medical care and reduced time to recovery following early COVID-19 infection. (Funded by Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre and AstraZeneca; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04416399) Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThe majority of interventions studied for the COVID-19 pandemic are focused on hospitalised patients. Widely available and broadly relevant interventions for mild COVID-19 are urgently needed. Added value of this studyIn this open label randomised controlled trial, inhaled budesonide, when given to adults with early COVID-19 illness, reduces the likelihood of requiring urgent care, emergency department consultation or hospitalisation. There was also a quicker resolution of fever, a known poor prognostic marker in COVID-19 and a faster self-reported and questionnaire reported symptom resolution. There were fewer participants with persistent COVID-19 symptoms at 14 and 28 days after budesonide therapy compared to usual care. Implications of all the available evidenceThe STOIC trial potentially provides the first easily accessible effective intervention in early COVID-19. By assessing health care resource utilisation, the study provides an exciting option to help with the worldwide pressure on health care systems due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from this study also suggests a potentially effective treatment to prevent the long term morbidity from persistent COVID-19 symptoms.

Recovery Ratios Reliably Anticipate COVID-19 Pandemic Progression (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic is placing unprecedented demands on healthcare systems worldwide and exacting a massive humanitarian toll. This makes the development of accurate predictive models imperative, not just for understanding the course of the pandemic but more importantly for gaining insight into the efficacy of public health measures and planning accordingly. Epidemiological models are forced to make assumptions about many unknowns and therefore can be unreliable. Here, taking an empirical approach, we report a 20-30 day lag between the peak of confirmed to recovered cases and the peak of daily deaths in each country, independent of the epoch of that country in its pandemic cycle. This analysis is expected to be largely independent of the proportion of the population being tested and therefore should aid in planning around the timing and easing of public health measures. Our data also suggests broad predictions for the number of fatalities, generally somewhat lower than most other models. Finally, our model suggests that the world as a whole is shortly to enter a recovery phase, at least as far as the first pandemic wave is concerned.